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Navigating the Polycrisis

  • Writer: Dr Sp Mishra
    Dr Sp Mishra
  • Sep 19
  • 6 min read
Insights into the Evolving World of Global Supply Chains (ICC Blog #120)
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In a recent episode of the India Career Centre Podcast, I had the pleasure of hosting Shekhar Cherukumilli, a seasoned supply chain strategist based in Seattle, for an insightful conversation on the evolving dynamics of global supply chains. With over 25 years of leadership experience at iconic brands like Gap Inc., Amazon, and Nike, Shekhar unpacked the transformation of supply chains in the 21st century—from reactive logistics to predictive, tech-enabled ecosystems. His reflections offered a compelling window into the strategic shifts, resilience frameworks, and digital innovations shaping global commerce today.


Profile Pic of Shekhar
Shekhar Cherukumilli

As global trade has ballooned from $7.7 trillion in 2000 to $33 trillion in 2024, understanding supply chains is more crucial than ever. This growth reflects not just economic expansion but also the increasing interdependence of nations, industries, and technologies. Drawing from his journey and expertise, this blog post captures key takeaways from the conversation, highlighting the challenges, innovations, and future directions of this vital industry. Whether you're a student eyeing a career in logistics or a professional navigating disruptions, Shekhar's insights provide a roadmap through the complexities of modern supply chains.


From Engineering Roots to Global Expertise

Shekhar's career began in Bangalore, India, where he studied mechanical engineering before pursuing a master's in industrial engineering at Clemson University. "I was drawn into supply chain... because I always felt that supply chain was something that connected the different parts of how a product is brought together for a consumer and the global nature of it," he shared. This fascination stemmed from his engineering background, which emphasised integration and efficiency. His early days in Silicon Valley exposed him to high-tech supply chains, laying a foundation in technology and global operations. Here, he worked amidst the dot-com boom, learning from mentors who demonstrated how supply chains could leverage cutting-edge tools to streamline processes across borders.


A pivotal move came in 2004 when he joined Gap Inc., spending over a decade immersing himself in retail supply chains. "That was where I pretty much grew up, learning all about global supply chains, how the retail industry works," Shekhar recalled. He emphasised the human element, technology, and processes that drive efficiency. For instance, consider the iPhone: it sources components from 43 countries, assembles in factories in China and India, and reaches over 100 markets worldwide. This involves around 2,000 parts crossing borders multiple times, contributing to economies through jobs and trade. Similarly, a Nike shoe draws from over 40 factories and 500-600 material suppliers, employing more than 1.1 million people, directly and indirectly. These examples underscore the sheer scale—boosting local economies in supplier nations while delivering products globally—and the complexity that fuels Shekhar's passion. They also highlight vulnerabilities, such as reliance on specific regions, which can lead to disruptions from events like natural disasters or trade wars.


His stint at Amazon further pushed boundaries. Leading supply chain for a startup called The Drop, Shekhar aimed to revolutionise fashion by delivering custom orders in under two weeks—beating industry standards of three to six months. "We were trying to push boundaries when it comes to fashion and when it comes to manufacturing and actual logistics," he explained. This on-demand model reduced inventory waste, minimised storage costs, and aligned with sustainable practices by producing only what's needed. By collaborating with design houses in Europe and Asia, and factories worldwide, the initiative served consumers in the U.S., Europe, Japan, and beyond. It exemplified how supply chains can shift from stockpiling to agile, responsive systems, reducing environmental impact and improving customer satisfaction.


The Polycrisis: Shaking Up Global Supply Chains

Transitioning to current challenges, Shekhar described today's supply chain landscape as a "polycrisis"—a convergence of geopolitical fragmentation, technological disruption, a widening skills gap, and sustainability mandates. The COVID-19 pandemic exposed brittle just-in-time models, while ongoing geopolitics, like U.S.-China tensions, continue to reshape trade routes. For everyday consumers, this means potential delays in products like electronics or apparel, higher prices due to tariffs, or shifts in availability. "The core challenge... is not merely optimising for efficiencies... but... looking at the future from a more resilient standpoint," he noted.

Geopolitical tensions are driving diversification. Shekhar pointed to cyclical trends, like the shift of iPhone production from China to India, echoing past apparel quota limits until the early 2000s that spurred growth in Southeast Asia. Those quotas forced companies to spread manufacturing, fostering economic booms in countries like Vietnam and Bangladesh. Today, "We are seeing moves towards more of near shoring... friend shoring," he said, where allies collaborate to mitigate risks. Near shoring might involve moving operations closer to end markets, like from Asia to Mexico for U.S. companies, reducing transit times and emissions. Despite deep interdependence—think of those 2,000 iPhone parts—Shekhar believes reversal isn't impossible: "I don't believe so because... the diversification part of supply chains has been in a cyclical nature." This adaptability ensures supply chains evolve with global dynamics, balancing cost with security.


Sustainability adds another layer of complexity, often clashing with globalisation's demands. Supply chains account for 80% of a company's carbon footprint, yet global operations inherently increase emissions through cross-border travel of components. Shekhar addressed this dichotomy: "Consumers are very well versed... and they are going to companies that actually get the best sustainable value out of it." He cited brands like Nike, Adidas, which use recycled materials, and Patagonia, known for ethical sourcing. These companies prove sustainability isn't a trade-off; it's integral to long-term viability. With mandates like the EU's sustainability laws of Corporate Sustainability Reporting Directive (CSRD), European Green Deal (EGD), and Digital Product Passport (DPP), firms must optimise across five dimensions: cost, convenience, sustainability, speed, and quality. This holistic approach turns challenges into opportunities, such as using renewable energy in factories or optimising routes to cut emissions.


Technology: Beyond the Hype

Technology is a double-edged sword in supply chains. While AI garners hype—with the market projected at $14 billion in 2025 and 23% CAGR—Shekhar cautioned against overreliance. "We still see about 70 to 75% failures in projects of AI within the supply chain... due to data silos to legacy systems." Issues like incompatible systems lead to "garbage in, garbage out" scenarios, eroding ROI. Instead, he advocated for human-AI synergy: "The real opportunity... lies not in replacing humans with AI, but in actually bringing the human and the AI parts together cohesively." AI can handle routine tasks, freeing humans for decision-making and exceptions.

Other technologies like blockchain ensure transparency and accuracy in global transactions, tracing products from farm to shelf. Advanced analytics and digital twins enable "what-if" scenario planning. Shekhar gave practical examples: "If I can model my supply chain... through a digital twin... I'm able to say, if I have my tariffs go from X to Y%, what does that mean for me." In factories he visited in Vietnam and Cambodia, digital twins simulated production floors to predict maintenance impacts, boosting efficiency. These tools help balance cost, speed, and sustainability, allowing simulations of disruptions like port closures or tariff hikes in a risk-free environment.


India's Role in the Global Arena

With deep ties to India, Shekhar highlighted its strengths: scale, strategic positioning via "Make in India," and infrastructure investments exceeding $100 billion in ports and highways. "A lot... is going in India's favour. Whether it is in terms of the human capital... or the technology," he observed, noting Bangalore's tech hub status. Compared to China’s manufacturing maturity or ASEAN nations like Vietnam's rapid tech adoption, India could improve policy stability for predictability. This would attract more enterprises, positioning India as a key logistics and tech hub.


Building Resilience and Looking Ahead to 2035

To counter disruptions, organisations are adopting "just-in-case" models alongside "just-in-time," with 69% of U.S. firms reshoring or nearshoring. Shekhar predicted a 2035 supply chain marked by digitalisation, localisation, and collaboration. Expect autonomous demand intelligence (e.g., Walmart's self-healing inventory to avoid stockouts), physical AI like cobots for strenuous tasks, and hyper-localisation. "I see a confluence of more digital, more localisation and also more collaboration," he forecasted. Nuclear-powered ships or safer fuels could further sustainability, reducing emissions in shipping.


For aspiring professionals, Shekhar advised blending technical skills (data analytics, ERP systems, AI, blockchain) with soft skills (problem-solving, adaptability, communication). "Keep your end-to-end mindset open... because the more you can help connect the dots, the more successful you're going to be." He suggested starting with internships in diverse supply chain roles to gain broad exposure.


Guiding Principles for a Future-Ready Supply Chain

In closing, Shekhar shared three principles:

- Embrace technology symbiotically: Foster human-machine collaboration, using AI to empower teams and build trust.

- Prioritise data and governance: Break silos for a unified strategy, ensuring AI's effectiveness.

- Lead with empathy and people first: Create psychological safety, as "Ultimately, supply chains are powered by people."


This conversation underscores supply chains as dynamic ecosystems blending human ingenuity with cutting-edge tech. As Shekhar aptly put it, "It's a big world of opportunity out there, so go and grab it." For young Indians and global enthusiasts, the field offers endless opportunities amid a transforming world—dive in, stay adaptable, and contribute to resilient, sustainable systems.


You can listen to the episode here or watch it on YouTube:

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